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Select a country to calculate their Round of 32 odds
This simulator uses the ELO rating system to calculate the win probability for every possible match. By simulating thousands of scenarios (or iterating through all combinations), we determine the likelihood of each team advancing to the Round of 32.
Q: How are the probabilities calculated?
A: We use a **Monte Carlo** simulation driven by **Elo ratings**. First, we calculate win probabilities for every match using the standard Elo formula (divisor 400). Then, for every valid group combination, we simulate the entire 6-match group stage **20,000 times**. In each simulation, match results are determined by random sampling against the probabilities, and we track how often the team finishes in the Top 2.
Q: Does this account for the 3rd place rule?
A: Yes. In the 2026 format, the top 2 teams from each group plus the 8 best 3rd-place teams advance. Our simulation determines the exact points and goal differences to calculate the "Best 3rd Place" table accurately.
Q: Can I trust these numbers?
A: They are probabilistic estimates based on ELO ratings. While ELO is a strong predictor, football is unpredictable. The results show the *likelihood* of outcomes, not guarantees.
Adjust ratings to simulate different scenarios.
Select a country to calculate their Round of 32 odds
| Rank | Pot 1 | Pot 2 | Pot 3 | Pot 4 | Advancement % |
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